Boxing Fulcrum

Darren Tetley versus Samuel Antwi breakdown

This is a solid match up at English level between two fighters who have one loss each. Darren Tetley had a good fight recently where after getting knocked down early he came back to make the fight competitive. Samuel Antwi had been progressing decently but missed weight in a southern Area title fight in 2019 and has had his career stall since. He’s been knocked out once when he traveled to Zimbabwe and faced a big puncher.

Darren Tetley is decent fundamentally and has a lot of heart as shown in his last fight. His defence isn’t as bad as him getting knocked down twice in his last fight suggests. I imagine he’ll be hugely motivated for this fight as a loss would be damaging to his career and may send him down the route of being an opponent for up and comers until he manages an upset win.

Samuel Antwi is a fairly aggressive fighter who has some power but can sometimes get a little wild. His defence is fairly average but is good enough for the level hes fighting at. Most of his wins haven’t aged well at all and him not having had a competitive fight in almost two years isn’t a good sign when going into a 50/50 match up.

I think Darren Tetley will win a decision due to being more active recently and also having fought a competitive fight in the last two years so he’ll be used to an opponent that actually punches back. They are relatively even skill wise though I would say Tetley is slightly better and has also proven it against better opponents.

Damiano Falcinelli versus Christian Arvelo Segura breakdown

This fight is for the Vacant Italy Super Welterweight title and is over ten rounds. I think its a good match up and the right fight for both. Falcinelli gets a good test and a shot at his first belt while Segura gets his first shot at the Italian belt after a hard career where hes fought on the road a few times.

Damiano Falcinello doesn’t have a great defence and also isn’t very fundamentally good in my opinion. He’s very open to punches especially when he himself punches. When someone pressures him he firstly tries to fight off the back foot but isn’t great at doing so. He then decides to start trading but because his punches are wide and his chin is in the air his opponents punches get there first. I’ve seen him be dropped so his chin isn’t that sturdy though he does seem to have a lot of heart and grit.

Christian Arvelo Segura also isn’t fundamentally very good as he throws his punches wide and often doesn’t cover up his chin while punching. He has a little power and when hes not punching maintains a high guard. He’s normally a front foot fighter so I expect him to be the aggressor in this fight at least early on.

I think this is a real 50/50 where Segura has more experience and likely a better defence but Falcinello has a better jab. It’ll likely come down to who lands first when they start exchanging punches and in my opinion that’ll be Segura who has also shown a more solid chin than Falcinello. I wouldn’t be surprised at a different result but i’m predicting Segura to win on points after a competitive fight.

Sean McComb versus Gavin Gwynne breakdown

This is a solid fight for both fighters and one I expect to be competitive. Sean McComb is a rising prospect who is currently 11-0 while Gavin Gwynne is 12-2. McComb is moving down from the Super Lightweight division to the lightweight division which is surprising as hes a massive Super Lightweight. Gavin Gwynne is also a huge Lightweight however doesn’t use his height that well.

Gavin Gwynne has a decent jab and right hand but doesn’t possess much power which is a little surprising considering how big he is for the weight. His defence isn’t the best though he has shown a solid chin so far. He stood up to James Tennyson’s punches for six rounds before the power finally broke him down which is no shame as Tennyson is a huge puncher.

Sean McComb has looked fairly good so far in his pro career and has been matched at a decent level throughout. He goes to the body well and generally throws in combination. While he clearly has some power in his left hand he doesn’t have the power of Tennyson or even enough power to stop British level fighters in my opinion. He’s fairly good defensively until it gets late in fights and then due to tiredness or a distraction he gets hit a lot which isn’t a great sign for later in his career.

I think Sean McComb is slightly better fundamentally and being a Southpaw will probably help him in this fight due to Gwynne not fighting many southpaws throughout his career. I think McComb will outbox Gwynne for the majority of the fight but will give away a few rounds at the end of the fight before winning a decision.

Timur Kerefov versus Fernando Ezequiel Farias breakdown

This isn’t a bad fight though with Farias coming in at short notice I imagine he isn’t in the best shape. Both fighters are undefeated with Kerefov being 9-0 while Farias is 10-0-2.

Timur Kerefov was a good amateur and is very much a boxer rather than a puncher. He can move well and is fluid with his combinations. He’s not got much power but makes up for it with accuracy. His defence is good though he can sometimes get to fancy with his footwork and get hit.

Fernando Ezequiel Farias is a decent fighter but isn’t on the technical level of Kerefov and doesn’t have the power to make up for it. His defence is average and I don’t see Kerefov having many problems hitting him. I also think he’ll struggle as the fight goes on as he’s taken it very short notice and didn’t weigh in at the middleweight limit or even near it. This say’s to me he’s not in shape as he normally fights at super welterweight so making middleweight shouldn’t be a problem.

I think Timur Kerefov will win by decision or late stoppage due to being better technically and having more notice for the fight. He’ll pick Farias apart for a few rounds and then due to Faria’s lack of fitness I think he’ll start too fall apart and go into survival mode in which case it’s 50/50 whether he makes it to the finish line.

Alejandro Guerrero versus Abraham Montoya breakdown

This is a very competitive fight between two young Lightweights who at this point in their careers aren’t very well known. Alejandro Guerrero is a solid prospect who is 12-0 though outside of his last fight hadn’t fought anybody that would test him. Abraham Montoyo boasts a record of 19-2-1 but has fought a good level of competition especially in his last ten fights.

Alejandro Guerrero doesn’t have a lot of footage online however he seems to have decent fundamentals and goes to the body a lot. I think he is available to be hit a lot of the time but his chin has held up so far. He had an amateur career but doesn’t really have much experience in the pro’s and especially not against good competition. He’s a come forward pressure fighter though needs to double jab to get inside more and also not follow his opponents. I thought his last fight should have been a draw though saying that it was a bad stylistic match up for him that he would have won by knockout if the fight was ten rounds as he had his opponent out on his feet in the 8th round.

Abraham Montoya isn’t great technically but he’ll keep pressing forward for twelve rounds until either he loses a decision or he stops his opponents due to body shots and pressure. His defence also isn’t great though he’s proven he has a good chin. He has a fairly “Mexican” style where comes forward willing to exchange punches in the belief that hes tougher has more power and can last longer. He can be out boxed though that won’t be a problem in this fight as I think Guerrero will look to fight him. He doesn’t have the fastest hands but his biggest problem for this fight is that hes moving up in weight.

I think Alejandro Guerrero will win a decision after eight rounds due to being bigger and having the more crisp punches. While Montoya’s body shots may take effect I think it will be too late as this is only eight rounds and Guerrero should be able to make it to the finish line. Montoya really doesn’t have a good defence so Guerrero should have ample opportunities to hit him and win rounds.

Vladimir Shishkin versus Sena Agbeko breakdown

This is a solid fight though one with a clear favorite in my eyes. Vladimir Shishkin has been slowly working his way towards a title shot in the Super Middleweight division and this is the next step of that plan. Sena Agbeko is 28 but has been very inactive in recent years with his last competitive fight being in 2014 where he lost by 4th round knockout.

Vladimir Shishkin clearly punches hard and always aims for the knockout though he has the technical skills from an extensive amateur background to win a decision if needed. He doesn’t really get hit very often and is generally solid all round though not exceptional at any one thing. I don’t think he’ll encounter too much trouble until he steps into fighting top 15 fighters in the division and at that point his hand speed may let him down.

Sena Agbeko isn’t a bad fighter but isn’t quite as fundamentally good as Shishkin is. His defence isn’t great as he keeps his head on the center line when attacking and his only way of avoiding punches is to use his footwork which isn’t anything special. His record shows he has some power though when he has stepped up hes gone the distance so I think it’s padded a little bit. He’s never been past eight rounds and hasn’t gone a hard six or eight rounds so this is really his first big test since he got knocked out six years ago. His chin has to be questioned as the fighter he was knocked out by wasn’t the biggest puncher in the world and ended up retiring without having achieved anything major in professional boxing. That fight was also down at middleweight and while Agbeko hasn’t had his chin tested at Super Middleweight i’d reckon a guess and say it isn’t any better than it was at middleweight.

I think Vladimir Shishkin will win by late stoppage due to being better fundamentally combined with Agbeko’s leaky defence and questionable chin. I also think as Shishkin forces the fight Agbeko won’t be used to the hard rounds and will tire meaning Shishkin can stop him later in the fight.

Janelson Figueroa Bocachica versus Mark Reyes Jr breakdown

This is a great match up between rising Welterweights who aren’t backed by major promoters. After both of them built records mainly off tv they are now making their appearances on television where they will have a chance to become bigger names and get more fights. Bocachica has already appeared on Showbox once where he impressed by winning by first round knockout.

Janelson Figueroa Bocachica is a talented fighter who doesn’t do anything particularly bad. He has a decent level of power though certainly isn’t a huge puncher. He can move around the ring well and his defence is adequate for this level.

There is very little footage of Mark Reyes Jr online but from what I’ve watched he has good fundamentals though doesn’t punch often and can be a bit lax about his defence at times. He does seem to have a good amount of power though. The majority of the punches I saw him throw were big counters so I presume hes a come forward counter puncher which is often a hard style to beat.

I think Bocachica will most likely win a decision due to throwing more punches and also limiting Reyes Jr’s chances to land clean due to the height difference. Bocachica is also fast and seems to be developing some power himself so a mid to late stoppage wouldn’t surprise me if he catches Reyes Jr.

George Arias versus Joel Caudle breakdown

This is a decent learning fight for Arias who hasn’t impressed me that much so far in his career. He’s 15-0 with seven knockouts and has been a pro for six years though hasn’t progressed all that much. Joel Caudle is a journeyman who takes on up and coming heavyweights in America which has led him to a record of 8-4-2.

Both heavyweights are on the short side at 6ft and 5ft 10 respectively. Neither has all that much power and neither are great technical boxers. I think Arias is a bit better technically though not a whole lot separates them.

I can see Arias being the aggressor with a lot of the rounds being close and up to debate however considering hes the prospect and likely on the front foot then I think he’ll get the benefit of the doubt from the judges and win a decision.

Shavkatdzhon Rakhimov and Kenichi Ogawa ordered to fight for vacant IBF Super featherweight world title

The IBF have ordered a fight between Rakhimov and Ogawa for the newly vacant IBF 130 pound title. These are still the two highest rated contenders as Rakhimov was number one and just fought to a draw while fighting for the title and Kenichi Ogawa is ranked third which is the next highest. The number two spot is currently vacant but Azinga Fuzile versus Martin Ward will likely get ordered for a mandatory spot.

I think Rakhimov versus Ogawa is a good fight and i’m glad the IBF have been quick with ordering a fight for the title as it’s never good when a belt remains vacant for too long. My early lean is that Rakhimov will win and perhaps by stoppage at that as Ogawa isn’t quite on his level and has struggled versus inferior opponents recently. Ogawa also failed a drug test after his 2017 win over Tevin Farmer so you have to wonder what type of fighter he is without the use of PED’s.

The different parties have 30 days to negotiate and come to a deal or the fight will be ordered to purse bids. This fight could potentially go to either Japan or Russia as both fighters have sizable promoters behind them. Ogawa has the renowned Teiken Promotions backing him while Rakhimov has RCC promotions behind him. Both of these promoters are arguably the biggest ones in their respective countries so it will be interesting if it goes to purse bids. I have a suspicion that they will agree a deal for the fight to be in Russia as Rakhimov has the bigger upside and after Rakhimov going on the road in his last two fights while performing well you’d think he’d get a big fight in his native country now. in Ogawa’s last title fight where he fought for the vacant IBF world title belt he went on the road to America so perhaps history will repeat slightly again and he will travel for his title shot.

Josh Warrington loses in massive upset

Josh Warrington who was widely regarded as the number one featherweight in the world lost in a major upset to relatively unknown Mauricio Lara. Coming into the fight people knew Lara could punch but he’d only faced domestic fighters in Mexico for the main part and at least in my eyes didn’t have the experience or skills to compete at world level.

I underestimated Lara who clearly punches extremely hard and like I stated in my preview has an iron chin. I still think versus a good stick and move boxer he would struggle but I forgot that styles make fights and Lara’s style completely counteracts Warrington’s. Lara is a come forward fighter with power and a great chin which means that when Warrington tries his usual style of coming forward while throwing huge amounts of punches he gets caught by the bigger puncher and also can’t hurt Lara because of his iron chin combined with Warrington not being a puncher. Warrington might have been able to out box Lara if he tried but I still think he would have struggled badly as that’s just not his style and Lara would still land the bigger punches.

While hindsight is a great thing and no one could have really predicted this outcome it has made me remember that every fight involves two fighters that could beat each other no matter how unlikely it is. The more you watch boxing the less some fights get interesting or seem risky just because in our heads we see the favorite as already having won and we are just waiting too see the manner of their victory. It also showed me how important styles are in fights and how matchmaking is a thankless job. In this case the matchmaker probably saw a Mexican with a padded record that Warrington could look good against while being entertaining and didn’t think if the guy had actual power or that this fight didn’t matter all that much because it was all about the big fights for Warrington next. That has gone out the window now and it’ll take a little while to rebuild as he has no world title and the featherweight division has changed with him losing so none of the big names will likely have any motivation to fight him beyond a pay day which they didn’t seem keen on before he lost. It was also a brutal knockout and you don’t know if he’ll be the same fighter now. Even if he is the same fighter a major vulnerability of him not being able to reliably hurt opponents at world level will likely see him fall short against the other champions.