This isn’t going to be a long breakdown because its a simple fight with a simple result. Canelo Alvarez is currently the best fighter in the world and will likely remain that way for the next few years. Avni Yildirim is a top 20 super middleweight who’s best career performance was arguably beating Anthony Dirrell but not getting the decision. He gets his second world title shot but this time against a foe he has very little chance of beating.
To put it bluntly Canelo does everything better than Yildirim and this fight is a case of an elite fighter versus a good fighter who is most known for his defeats. The fact that Yildirim has managed to secure himself a Canelo fight and payday is honestly impressive as he’s not someone that anybody wanted Canelo to fight.
The reason he’s getting a shot at Canelo is because the WBC promised him another crack at the world title after his controversial loss to Dirrell. This kept getting delayed and eventually he agreed to step aside so that the vacant WBC title could be on the line for Canelo versus Callum Smith with him getting the winner. Canelo won and is now having a quick turn around to fight him now that hes mandatory. I thought even after being guaranteed a shot at the winner that Yildirim wouldn’t get it due to Canelo being promoted to Franchise champion or the WBC simply ignoring him in favor of getting Canelo bigger fights.
Avni Yildirim
I like that Canelo is being so active and think more top fighters should do what hes doing and fight an easier opponent early on in the year as an additional fight to their two big ones. I don’t like how inactive top fighters are now and if them fighting inferior opposition in their extra fights is the answer then i’m all for it.
I think Canelo’s skills and the gap in levels between him and Yildirim will lead to him winning by knockout within six rounds.
A program aired tonight on BBC One which delved into and explained the connections between MTK, Daniel Kinahan and the Irish Cartel which he leads. I found the program interesting even though I already knew most of the details which most people that follow boxing also knew.
I tend to believe that MTK is involved as a front for money laundering of some kind as there’s too much evidence that links them to Kinahan and criminal activity though they don’t have enough evidence to actually arrest people such as Kinahan yet.
A bit like how they couldn’t get the Mob bosses in America for years I imagine its just as hard getting anything to stick to Kinahan and his lot. I think boxing still being involved with organised crime isn’t a great look for the sport especially when that organised crime has led to many deaths. Unfortunately I see very little changing however.
Both Fredrickson and Granados are fighting in comeback fights in Mexico versus opposition I expect them to beat comfortably. They are also both coming off back to back losses and it’ll be good for them to pick up wins and try and stay active while the pandemic is still going on.
Hopefully after they get their respective wins they can get opportunities for bigger fights as they are entertaining fighters in their primes who have already proven they will fight anyone. Sonny Fredrickson will take on Jose Eduardo Canales over 8 rounds while Adrian Granados will take on Nestor Fernando Garcia over 8 rounds.
Sonny Fredrickson
With crowds starting to come back a bit more recently we should see more and more fighters get opportunities and hopefully promoters get both Granados and Fredrickson fights.
This is a little bit of a step up for Joey Spencer but still one hes expected to win in good fashion. He’s one of the better American Middleweight prospects and is being heavily backed by PBC. Isiah Seldon is a domestic fighter in America who has been stopped in his two step up fights.
Joey Spencer has reasonable power and an aggressive style versus overmatched opponents which I think Seldon is. Seldon isn’t a great fighter and his defence combined with his chin really lets him down.
Isiah Seldon
I think Joey Spencer will win by early knockout due to having more power combined with an aggressive style versus Seldon who isn’t good defensively and has a questionable chin.
This is a solid fight between two Mexican featherweights who are both undefeated. Montoya is 12-0 with 10 knockouts while Olivo is 14-0-1 with six knockouts.
Adrian Montoya is someone I’ve watched before and was impressed by. He’s an aggressive come forward fighter who has decent technical skills and in my opinion a decent upside. He also clearly carries power and has either hurt or stopped every opponent hes faced.
Christian Olivo is a bit like Montoya but just not as good and polished. He also doesn’t possess the power that Montoya has and also hasn’t faced the same level of competition.
Christian Olivo
I think Adrian Montoya will win by knockout due to having more power and being the more polished fighter who is more suited to the pro game.
Tulaganov continues to progress quickly in his career by taking on Berrocal in only his fourth fight. It’s not as big of a risk as it looks however as Berrocal hasn’t won for a while and seems to be washed up at this point.
Rustam Tulaganov was a good amateur and has the technical skills you expect from one. He’s not shown massive power yet however the only opponent he’s faced over a distance longer than six rounds is tough so him only having one knockout isn’t a terrible sign yet.
Beibi Berrocal isn’t as good as Tulaganov in almost any aspect and while he’s only 33 he seems to be past his prime and is being used as a measuring stick for fighters. He was recently beat by a kick boxer making his debut which perhaps shows what stage of his career he’s at.
Beibi Berrocal
I think Rustam Tulaganov will win by knockout due to being in his prime and having the better technical skills. He’s also got all the momentum behind him while Berrocal may just be in boxing for a few more paydays at this point.
This is a decent step up for Silyagin who is only 5-0 but is already fighting decent fighters. Omar Garcia is a decent fighter who has had success on the road before in Russia which is where this fight is taking place.
Pavel Silyagin was a good international amateur who also participated in the World Series of boxing. He has a good jab which seems to do real damage and he throws it both to the body and head which is great to see. He is technically very good though can seem a bit robotic and stiff at times. I think he has shown a good level of power so far in his career.
Omar Garcia isn’t a bad fighter himself and while he’s not technically the best he has shown good attributes in fights which has led him to upsetting a fighter or two. He has a lot of power and if he catches people clean he’ll likely stun or hurt them. He is decent at landing big counter hooks in exchanges and I’ve watched him clip good fighters such as Aidos Yerbossnuly with his counter right hooks. While his defence isn’t good he doesn’t get hit all that much until he starts to tire after constant pressure from opponents. He doesn’t jab very often however unlike Silyagin has a little bit of an inside game though its still very little.
Omar Garcia
I think Pavel Silyagin will win a decision due to working behind his jab and making Garcia reset constantly. I think while it’ll be competitive early Silyagin will tire Garcia out by using his jab to constantly pressure him and take over late in the fight.
This is yet another good fight for Batyrgaziev considering how early he is in his career. He’s only 2-0 with two knockouts but has already faced two solid opponents with good records. He was a standout amateur and is being progressed quickly as a pro. For this fight he’s moving back down to his more natural weight of featherweight rather than being up at Super Featherweight where he had a height disadvantage. Zingange is a domestic fighter in South Africa who has had success domestically but was stopped quickly when he stepped up in competition.
Albert Batyrgaziev has a relentless style where he’ll throw a lot of punches and never run out of stamina. He doesn’t always come forwards but will do when he senses his opponents tiring or feels he can do. He has good counters and is great technically though might need to sharpen up a little bit defensively to win a world title. His defence isn’t bad its just that he occasionally gets hit by punches he probably shouldn’t be getting hit by though that may be because he was at a height and reach disadvantage. I’m not sure how much power he has as while he has two knockouts at a higher weight class those were due to volume and his opponents getting tired instead of his power, he may punch harder at featherweight however.
Sibusiso Zingange is fairly tall for a featherweight and has an aggressive style. He throws a huge amounts of 1-2’s and puts a lot of power behind his punches. He overextends a lot while doing this which should give good fighters lots of opportunities to hit him. He isn’t technically great but seems to have good stamina and isn’t afraid to get into exchanges and throw massive overhand rights. I don’t think his defence is great and its not a great sign for him that in the one fight where he left South Africa and stepped up in competition versus Jeremiah Nakathila he was stopped in six rounds.
I think Albert Batyrgaziev will win by knockout in the second half of this ten rounder due to being technically better and Zingange leaving lots of openings when he punches which will suit Batyrgaziev as he’s a good counter puncher.
This will be Caleb Plant’s third title defence and unfortunately its just as bad as his other two defences. Caleb Plant is a talented fighter with a great story and when he won the IBF Super middleweight world title I was happy for him but since then his run of form has been terrible. Caleb Truax has been a solid contender in the middle and super middleweight divisions for the last ten years but is well past his prime at this point and close to retirement.
Caleb Plant is a smooth boxer who doesn’t have a whole load of power. He can move and box with the best at 168 and truly puts his combinations together well but just doesn’t have the power that others at the weight class do. He’s certainly a top 5 super middleweight and world level which are things that can’t be said about Truax at this point.
Caleb Plant
Caleb Truax in his prime was a good fighter who lost when stepping up to the top level. His one big win was when he won the IBF Super middleweight title in a big upset versus James DeGale. He lost the rematch and has been treading water for the last three years before getting this title shot. He didn’t look good at all in his last fight and in my opinion has clearly declined.
Caleb Truax
Its hard to see anything but a Caleb Plant victory in this fight due to him being a world class fighter in their prime versus a guy who even in his prime wouldn’t be favored to win this fight. I have a lot of respect for Truax and how he pulled the big upset win on the road to win his world title but I just think he’s to far past it to make this fight competitive and I see him being stopped between rounds seven and ten.
This is an excellent match up between two unbeaten American heavyweights who are just now getting their chance to fight on television and make a name for themselves. Coffie has been an unexpected addition on two Fox TV cards so far most likely due to the pandemic and hes taken those opportunity’s and made the most of them by knocking out his two opponents in a combined seven rounds. Darmani Rock has slowly been building his record (17-0) in small hall events off television but now the 24 four year old from Philadelphia gets his first big show and test. A lot of people that know boxing very well think hes talented but has had problems with not training enough and coming into fights overweight especially in recent years where you can see from his boxrec hes been weighing in heavier and heavier as time goes on.
Michael Polite Coffie has only been a pro for just over three years but is progressing quickly towards world level because of his age of 34. Due to his age he doesn’t need 20 developmental fights and can’t really afford to slowly work his way towards a title shot especially considering how hard it is to get on television and get these opportunities hes getting. I imagine other fighters were offered what hes been offered but weren’t ready or weren’t willing to take a risk to advance their careers so all credit has to be given to Coffie.
Michael Polite Coffie
Coffie isn’t the most technically proficient fighter you’ll see but hes not bad and clearly thinks about what hes doing in the ring which makes him better than 90% of heavyweights. He’s not that active but carries a good level of power however I do think hes susceptible to being outworked by a more active fighter who is at least somewhat defensively responsible. He doesn’t use the jab to set up much or as a weapon and mostly throws 1-2’s and big hooks though the hooks are mostly counters. He does work consistently to the body in his fights and can put combinations together decently when he wants too. His defence is a bit questionable but he seems to take punches well. I’m not a big fan of how he attempts a sort of shoulder roll to get away from punches especially in his last fight where he ended up getting caught by the punches he was turning away from anyway. I think his biggest strength is his calmness in the ring, he doesn’t get panicked when an opponent hits him or is pushing forward and similarly doesn’t get excited and punch himself out if he gets an opponent hurt.
Darmani Rock is a talented fighter who enjoyed success in the amateurs at an international level. He’s got a slick style where he makes opponents miss before punishing them with four or five punch combinations. His defence is certainly the best part of his game however he also puts his punches together well and works to the body consistently. He seems comfortable in the ring and considering his size moves very well which is rare for a heavyweight. Combine moving well with having fast hands and it seems like you would have a world class prospect that everyone wants right? At this point you might ask why its taken 17 fights for someone to take a chance on him and that solely comes down to his weight issues. Ever since he left the amateurs hes put on weight and gone from weighing 246 for his debut to heights of 289. He doesn’t look like the same fighter with the extra weight as he can’t move properly and everything he does looks sluggish in my opinion. This is sad too see as if you look at old footage you can see the talent and potential he has if he wasn’t overweight for his fights.
Darmani Rock
A lot of my prediction for this fight will depend on the weigh in. If Darmani Rock comes in at a good weight I think he’ll win a decision or late stoppage because hes the more talented athletic fighter who puts his combinations together well combined with solid defence. When he’s not overweight he has a good output and as I mentioned above I think a fighter with decent output and a solid defence could beat Coffie so stylistically Rock should win if hes in shape. If he isn’t in shape I personally think Coffie will likely do enough to win a decision or even get a late stoppage once Rock gasses out. Coffie doesn’t have fast hands but hes purposeful and can catch the slowed Rock with big punches and his work to the body will be especially effective if Rock turns up out of shape. I don’t think he’ll be phrased by anything Rock does as well because of how calm he is in the ring which can certainly work to his advantage if a 280 pound Rock is trying to walk him down and is used to opponents being intimidated.
Boxing Fulcrum 