Boxing Fulcrum

Gervonta Davis versus Leo Santa Cruz breakdown

This is a great fight between two of the biggest names in American boxing right now. Gervonta Davis in his recent fights has shown hes a star by selling out Arena’s versus people that most fans have never heard of. Leo Santa Cruz has a strong Mexican and Mexican-American fan base behind him and has been competing at the top level of the sport for years. Both are excellent fighters and this will be the biggest test of their careers so far which means a lot considering they have 62 fights between them

Gervonta Davis is a massive puncher with underrated boxing ability. He has a good solid jab which he uses to set up a lot of his more damaging punches and this is key to his success. His defence is also good and considering hes quite an aggressive fighter he doesn’t get hit all that much. While he doesn’t throw a huge amount of punches a round hes normally accurate landing around 50% of his power punches. The biggest issues that Tank has aren’t in the ring but outside of it. Hes struggled with weight more than once due to presumably ill discipline however I don’t think that will be a problem for this one as hes had a long camp in Vegas away from distractions where he seems to be really putting in the work. While he doesn’t have the height or reach advantage over Leo I would argue hes still the bigger man frame wise and certainly carries a significant power advantage.

Leo Santa Cruz is a four weight champion who has competed at world level since 2012. He has massive experience as a pro as evidenced by him having boxed 261 rounds compared to Gervonta’s 79. Leo is a volume puncher who has been known for getting into wars throughout his career. In recent years he’s tried to rely more on his technical boxing skills and boxing at range rather than getting into a messy brawl. He has a nice jab though it doesn’t have that much power behind it compared to Gervonta’s and I think he uses it more as a rangefinder rather than as a weapon. Leo doesn’t have a terrible defence but if he didn’t have a great chin he wouldn’t have got to this fight as he isn’t very hard to hit.

I think Gervonta Davis will win this fight by knockout in the 7th or 8th round due to having the superior power and also being a natural 130 pounder. The biggest reason I think he’ll win though is because Leo Santa Cruz won’t be throwing as many punches as he usually does due to Tanks power. This sort of thing has happened in other fights where a fighter who’s strength is volume punching suddenly lowers their punch output when faced with a big puncher because they don’t want to leave themselves open to get hit. I think this will play into Gervonta’s hands as he doesn’t throw a lot of punches but his are accurate and have real power behind them and if Leo throws roughly the same amount as Tank does Tanks punches will have more of an effect and he’ll win the fight. For Leo Santa Cruz to win he’ll either have to throw his usual amount of punches and hope his chin holds up to Tanks power (I don’t think it will) or box a perfect fight moving around the ring and countering which I think he will struggle to do because of Tanks jab that will make Leo reset and move again.

Saleto Henderson versus Christian Gonzalez Hernandez breakdown

Saleto Henderson is one of the most under the radar prospects in American boxing right now in my opinion. He’s small even for a Light Flyweight which I think is where he plans to compete at as he moves up the levels in the professional game. Christian Hernandez is an experienced fighter who has only fought in Mexico but boasts a good record of 10-2 compared to Henderson’s 7-0.

Saleto Henderson has a good jab which he seems to set everything up behind. When he gets into range he fires off combinations which seem to have a focus on the body though he does still punch to the head. At this level of competition it appears he has fight stopping power though its yet to be seen if it will translate as he starts fighting better fighters. He uses a good amount of feints and brings the fight to his opponents which he needs to do because of his height.

Christian Hernandez unfortunately doesn’t have any footage online but from looking at his record he looks like a solid domestic operator in Mexico who is tough. He fought Maximino Flores (fighter who was supposed to fight Julio Cesar Martinez recently) on his debut and his only other loss is to an undefeated fighter who is now 8-0.

I expect Saleto Henderson to win this fight by decision though it may be harder than people expect. I am excited for Henderson’s next fight where he’ll face Ganigan Lopez the former WBC Flyweight champion.

Shu Utsuki versus Takayuki Sakai breakdown

This should be a competitive match up between two Japanese Lightweights. Shu Utsuki is a promising prospect who in his next few bouts will be looking at domestic titles while Utsuki is looking to bounce back and potentially push for titles himself.

Shu Utsuki is an exciting fighter who had a good amateur background before turning pro. He seems to have good power and obviously has good technical boxing skills. His defence is decent though he has been dropped before.

Takayuki Sakai is a come forward fighter that takes one to give one. Hes very tough and while his defence is limited to him standing still with his gloves up he does block a lot of punches with his gloves. He mostly throws hooks to the body and head while rarely jabbing or throwing straight shots. He seems to have good power and if he lands cleanly clearly hurts people.

I think Shu Utsuki should be able to win a decision due to his superior technical skills though I wouldn’t be overly surprised if Sakai manages to spring an upset by knocking Utsuki out or at least getting a knockdown or two.

Toka Kahn Clary, James Perella, Francis Hogan and Elijah Peixoto fight on Thursday (29/10/2020)

Toka Kahn Clary will be having a tune up fight versus Jonathan Perez on Thursday after being out the ring for over a year. Clary is most known for losing to Kid Galahad in an IBF final eliminator in 2018. He hasn’t done much since but was linked to a fight with Abraham Nova but pulled out of the fight for unknown reasons. I expect him to win this fight and then try and get a big fight at Super Featherweight now that he has moved up. The best fight he could get at Super Featherweight right now would be Shakur Stevenson who needs an opponent for January before he goes on to fight the winner of Jamel Herring and Carl Frampton. If Clary could beat Stevenson he would get a title shot and probably be favored over both Herring and Frampton if he could pull off the upset against Stevenson.

Three stand out former USA amateurs will also fight on the card in separate six and four rounders. Francis Hogan who is 2-0 will fight in a six rounder versus Charon Spain and out of all the former amateurs on this card I think hes the best prospect.

James Perella will face Antonio Castillo over four rounds where I expect him to improve to 6-0 with five knockouts. He is 28 now so needs to step on the gas and try and get signed with a big promoter before his prime years pass by.

Elijah Peixoto is currently 2-0 and will be facing Kristopher Berberich over four rounds. I expect him to win this fight but I don’t think he has a particularly high ceiling in the sport and has been moving slow considering hes been a pro for over a year.

Kittithat Ungsrivongs, Jakkrawut Majoogoen and Tasana Salapat fight friday.

This trio of Thai’s will fight Friday in what I imagine should be three easy fights. Tasana Salapat and Jakkrawut Majoogoen will fight in six rounders against opponents that haven’t been named yet. Kittithat Ungsrivongs will fight Omar El Ouers over ten rounds for the vacant WBC Asian boxing council Continental super featherweight title… yes thats a real belt. I expect all three to win their fights though Ungsrivongs will have the hardest time of it even though the fighter hes facing is 0-1-1 but to be fair his draw is against Majoogoen who was 32-1 at the time.

Yamil Alberto Peralta versus Marcos Nicolas Karalitzky breakdown

This is a solid domestic match up between two Argentinian Cruiserweights. Peralta was a good amateur who competed internationally and also fought in the World series of boxing. Karalitzky is a fighter who has had mixed results at domestic level in Argentina but is clearly tough and will fight anyone.

Peralta is a good counter-puncher who normally chooses to box on the back foot. He moves around the ring decently but doesn’t overly do it like some fighters do where they refuse to plant their feet and trade. He has a good jab which he throws often but other than his jab he isn’t very active and instead picks his shots which seem to have some power. I think if he upped his work rate he could perhaps get more knockouts as he only has two out of his six wins. His defence seems smooth and he doesn’t get hit much though he has been dropped once. I think he is slowly getting adjusted to the pro style however is still a very patient fighter that is happy too look for opportunities rather than make them.

From the footage I’ve watched Karalitzky moves around the ring a lot and throws wide punches. He’s not a high volume puncher and doesn’t appear to have much power. He is also moving up for this fight as he is normally a natural Light Heavyweight.

I think Peralta will win by knockout in the 6th or 7th round because he is just overall a better fighter than Karalitzky who is also smaller and has less power. I hope we see Peralta move past domestic level soon as he could be an interesting addition to the Cruiserweight division.

Daigo Higa versus Seiya Tsutsumi breakdown

This should be a good test to see if Daigo Higa is still his destructive self at Bantamweight. Daigo Higa won the WBC Flyweight title a few years ago and after making two defences missed weight and lost his title to Cristofer Rosales. He was banned from fighting until earlier this year due to missing weight and was forced to move up to Bantamweight if he wanted to continue to box. Seiya Tsutsumi is a solid domestic prospect who seems to also have a decent amount of power.

Daigo Higa puts his opponents under immense pressure as he never stops marching forward and cutting off the ring. He has an underrated defence and usually keeps his gloves up which he catches a lot of punches on. He has a lot of power and also throws a good amount of punches though I wouldn’t call him reckless. He has competed at world level before and holds the experience advantage over the relative rookie Seiya Tsutsumi.

Seiya Tsutsumi will be on the back foot in this fight in my opinion because Higa is very aggressive and in Tsutsumi’s first step up fight he fought on the back foot. He has a good jab which he doubles up occasionally and if he used it more I think he would have a lot more success. When he does go on the offence its by raiding forwards with a two or three punch combination which he mixes to the body and head before resetting and circling the ring again. His defence isn’t bad but he doesn’t have great head movement so I think Higa will be able to land clean on him at some point in the fight.

I think Daigo Higa will win this fight by knockout in the 5th or 6th round due to having superior power and Tsutsumi not having the experience to deal with Higa’s relentless pressure.

Malik Hawkins versus Subriel Matias breakdown

This is a solid fight between two potential contenders in the super lightweight division. Malik Hawkins is 18-0 but in his only step up fight really struggled before his opponent injured themselves and couldn’t continue. Subriel Matias was a top prospect before losing focus in his last fight and getting upset by someone he really should have beat.

I’ve never been convinced by Malik Hawkins however I was high on Matias before his loss and as long as he has full concentration I think he should win this fight by knockout.

Xavier Martinez versus Claudio Marrero breakdown

This is a great step up fight for Xavier Martinez who looks to be a very promising prospect in the Super Featherweight division. Claudio Marrero has been a gatekeeper at featherweight for the last few years but is moving up to Super featherweight for this fight which may not bode well for him.

Xavier Martinez throws in combination and puts a lot of power behind his punches. He generally fights on the front foot and slowly creeps forward before firing off a three or four punch combination. I think his defence has looked great so far though like most prospects he hasn’t faced anyone that would really test it yet. His stamina and chin are also suspect so far though hes never given any reason for me to suspect either is bad. He is the naturally bigger man in this fight and also much younger and fresher.

Claudio Marrero is a boxer-puncher who changes how he fights throughout the fight. He sometimes doesn’t throw that many punches and limits himself to single shots but the next round will blitz out and throw huge amounts of punches behind a very solid jab. I think the biggest problem he has is concentration and fight IQ which is clearly lacking but is made up by him being a gifted athlete. He is the smaller man and is coming towards the end of his career after taking a hard loss against Kid Galahad where he took a lot of punches.

I think this fight will be closer than the bookies indicate though Xavier Martinez should be able to use his physical advantages to win a hard fought decision after ten rounds. I think many are underestimating Marrero and if this fight was at featherweight versus a prospect who was smaller I would heavily favour Marrero.

Sergey Lipinets versus Custio Clayton breakdown

This is an excellent fight in the Welterweight division which will crown a new title contender in the IBF. Sergey Lipinets has looked good in his fights since moving up to Welterweight and with a win here can look to become a two division world champion in 2021. Custio Clayton has slowly been building himself to title contention over the last six years and must know that at 33 this is likely his only chance at getting to a world title.

Sergey Lipinets is a combination puncher that puts a heavy focus on the body. The punch I think he loves to throw more than anything is the overhand right. He used to be a high level kick boxer and like many kick boxers that transition to boxing he has a lacklustre defence though his chin makes up for his defensive deficiencies. He has experience at the top level of the sport and performed admirably against Mikey Garcia even though he lost a decision after twelve rounds.

Custio Clayton is a big welterweight but doesn’t use his size to his advantage like he could. He doesn’t throw a lot of punches instead preferring accurate counter shots that seem to have some power on them. It’s hard to tell how good his chin is as he hasn’t faced anyone that can really test it yet. His defence seems to be adequate from what I’ve seen though it will be put to the test against Lipinets. He lacks the experience at world level that Lipinets has though with there being no crowd that may not have a huge effect on him.

I think this will be a very competitive fight and will largely come down to who implements their game plan better. I expect Lipinets to throw lots of punches and be the aggressor and as long as he doesn’t feel Clayton can hurt him will win by late knockout. For Clayton he needs to get Lipinets respect within the first four rounds or he won’t be able to keep the Russian at bay. He also needs to get Lipinets timing and make his punches really count as he won’t be throwing as many as Lipinets. Judges often prefer volume especially if the person throwing more punches is coming forward so it will be hard for Clayton to get a decision.

I think Sergey Lipinets will win by stoppage in the 11th or 12th round due to consistently going to the body which will tire Clayton out enough that Lipinets can stop him late. While Clayton has some power I don’t think its anything that Lipinets hasn’t seen before so he won’t hesitate to go forward and overwhelm the Canadian.