This is a great fight between two of the biggest names in American boxing right now. Gervonta Davis in his recent fights has shown hes a star by selling out Arena’s versus people that most fans have never heard of. Leo Santa Cruz has a strong Mexican and Mexican-American fan base behind him and has been competing at the top level of the sport for years. Both are excellent fighters and this will be the biggest test of their careers so far which means a lot considering they have 62 fights between them
Gervonta Davis is a massive puncher with underrated boxing ability. He has a good solid jab which he uses to set up a lot of his more damaging punches and this is key to his success. His defence is also good and considering hes quite an aggressive fighter he doesn’t get hit all that much. While he doesn’t throw a huge amount of punches a round hes normally accurate landing around 50% of his power punches. The biggest issues that Tank has aren’t in the ring but outside of it. Hes struggled with weight more than once due to presumably ill discipline however I don’t think that will be a problem for this one as hes had a long camp in Vegas away from distractions where he seems to be really putting in the work. While he doesn’t have the height or reach advantage over Leo I would argue hes still the bigger man frame wise and certainly carries a significant power advantage.
Leo Santa Cruz is a four weight champion who has competed at world level since 2012. He has massive experience as a pro as evidenced by him having boxed 261 rounds compared to Gervonta’s 79. Leo is a volume puncher who has been known for getting into wars throughout his career. In recent years he’s tried to rely more on his technical boxing skills and boxing at range rather than getting into a messy brawl. He has a nice jab though it doesn’t have that much power behind it compared to Gervonta’s and I think he uses it more as a rangefinder rather than as a weapon. Leo doesn’t have a terrible defence but if he didn’t have a great chin he wouldn’t have got to this fight as he isn’t very hard to hit.
I think Gervonta Davis will win this fight by knockout in the 7th or 8th round due to having the superior power and also being a natural 130 pounder. The biggest reason I think he’ll win though is because Leo Santa Cruz won’t be throwing as many punches as he usually does due to Tanks power. This sort of thing has happened in other fights where a fighter who’s strength is volume punching suddenly lowers their punch output when faced with a big puncher because they don’t want to leave themselves open to get hit. I think this will play into Gervonta’s hands as he doesn’t throw a lot of punches but his are accurate and have real power behind them and if Leo throws roughly the same amount as Tank does Tanks punches will have more of an effect and he’ll win the fight. For Leo Santa Cruz to win he’ll either have to throw his usual amount of punches and hope his chin holds up to Tanks power (I don’t think it will) or box a perfect fight moving around the ring and countering which I think he will struggle to do because of Tanks jab that will make Leo reset and move again.